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- Will Bitcoin (BTC) cross $120,000 in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Bitcoin hits $120,000.00 or higher at any point (UTC) on or before Dec 31, 2026.
- Will any G20 country fully launch a retail CBDC by October 2026?: Resolves to YES if a G20 member nation officially rolls out a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as nationwide legal tender.
- Will average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa hit 430 ppm in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the monthly average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory peaks or averages 430 parts per million (ppm) or higher in 2026.
- Will 'Dune: Part Three' get delayed past December 31, 2026?: Resolves to YES if Legendary Entertainment or Warner Bros announces theatrical release of Dune: Part Three is officially set after Dec 31, 2026, or if no release occurs.
- Will Ethereum (ETH) reach a new all-time high of $5,000 in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Ethereum trades at or above $5,000.00 at any point (UTC) on or before Dec 31, 2026 on major exchanges.
- Will Fed cut interest rates in Q2 2026?: Resolves to YES if the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee reduces the target federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in Q2 2026.
- 2026 Men's French Open Winner: Who will win the 2026 Men's French Open? Trade Yes/No contracts on each contender player in the sub-market pool.
- Will a Green Party candidate win leadership of any G7 nation in 2026?: Resolves to YES if a member of a registered national Green Party is elected or appointed as Chancellor, Prime Minister, or President of a G7 country in 2026.
- Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before July 31, 2026?: Resolves to YES if OpenAI officially launches a model explicitly branded 'GPT-5' for public access (free or paid) on or before July 31, 2026.
- Will 2026 break the record for hottest year on record?: Resolves to YES if NOAA or NASA reports that the global average surface temperature for 2026 is higher than any preceding year.
- Will LeBron James announce permanent NBA retirement in 2026?: Resolves to YES if LeBron James officially announces he will retire from playing professional basketball in the NBA.
- Will Lionel Messi announce retirement in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Lionel Messi publicly announces his official retirement from professional club and international football before December 31, 2026.
- "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes): Strong Friday grosses of $38.4 million, including over $10 million in previews, have propelled "Backrooms" toward an $85–90 million opening weekend that would shatter A24’s prior record. Traders assign an 83.7% implied probability to the >79 million outcome because the film’s internet-born IP from creator Kane Parsons drove exceptional under-35 turnout and presale momentum, while early tracking estimates of $40–50 million were rapidly revised upward. Positive critical reception, reflected in an 87–90% Rotten Tomatoes score, further reinforced audience interest and positioned the horror title ahead of recent franchise benchmarks. With the weekend’s final tally due shortly, any last-minute holdover strength could lock in the higher range.
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: The 2028 presidential field remains wide open more than two years before the general election, with trader consensus reflecting a broad array of potential Republican and Democratic nominees and no single candidate yet consolidating dominant support. JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Marco Rubio lead at 18.3%, 15.8%, and 14.0% respectively amid early positioning by governors, senators, and other prominent figures. This tight distribution stems from ongoing party dynamics after the prior cycle, limited early polling in battleground states, and the absence of formal primary contests or major endorsements. Midterm legislative outcomes, candidate announcements, and shifts in key voting blocs could consolidate backing, while historical patterns show early probabilities often realign substantially once the primary calendar advances.
- Will SpaceX successfully complete a Starship orbital flight with a soft splashdown of both stages by December 31, 2026?: SpaceX's Starship program aims to revolutionize space travel with its fully reusable launch system. While several test flights have occurred, achieving a controlled splashdown of both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage in a single orbital mission remains a significant challenge. This market will track the progress and success of the integrated flight test campaign.
- Will Apple, Google, Meta, or Amazon announce a significant blockchain/crypto product or service integration by January 22, 2027?: These tech giants have historically been cautious with direct crypto integrations, often preferring their own payment systems or closed ecosystems. However, increasing mainstream adoption of blockchain technology and pressure from competitors could push one of them to make a significant move. This market speculates on whether any of these four companies will publicly commit to a major blockchain or crypto-related product within the specified timeframe.
- Will any G7 country formally announce a new, more ambitious 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target before COP29?: Global climate negotiations and scientific reports continue to highlight the urgency for enhanced climate action. As the world approaches COP29, there is mounting international pressure on developed nations, particularly the G7, to update their climate pledges. This market assesses the probability of a G7 member formally committing to a stronger 2030 emissions reduction target.
- Will the US Congress pass comprehensive federal AI regulation legislation by December 31, 2026?: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has spurred global calls for regulation. While various proposals have been introduced, reaching a consensus on comprehensive federal legislation in the US Congress faces significant political hurdles and industry lobbying. This market assesses the likelihood of a major legislative breakthrough by year-end.
- Will the US Congress pass comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation by December 31, 2026?: The debate around cryptocurrency regulation in the United States continues to intensify, with various legislative proposals circulating. A comprehensive framework aims to provide clarity for digital asset businesses and investors, but political divisions and industry lobbying present significant hurdles. Traders will assess the likelihood of bipartisan agreement and legislative priority before the end of the year.
- Which U.S. Supreme Court Justice will announce their retirement or resignation by January 23, 2027?: The composition of the U.S. Supreme Court is a critical aspect of American governance, with lifetime appointments shaping legal precedent for decades. Speculation often surrounds potential retirements, particularly among older justices, which would allow the sitting President to nominate a successor. Traders will assess the likelihood of various justices stepping down in the coming months, influencing the court's future ideological balance.
- Will SpaceX successfully achieve a Starship orbital flight with both Super Heavy booster and Starship landing by 2027?: SpaceX's Starship program aims for full reusability of its Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage. Achieving a successful orbital flight with both stages returning and landing is a critical milestone for future lunar and Martian missions. This market tracks the progress towards this ambitious engineering feat, which has seen several test flights but not yet a full, successful return of both stages.
- Will the US Congress pass a comprehensive AI regulation bill by December 31, 2026?: Discussions around artificial intelligence regulation are intensifying globally, with various proposals emerging from both sides of the aisle in the US Congress. This market assesses the likelihood of a significant legislative breakthrough before the year's end, aiming to establish a federal framework for AI development and deployment. The outcome will reflect the political will and ability to bridge divides on a complex and rapidly evolving technological landscape.
- Will the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially conclude with at least 18 named storms?: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Recent years have seen an increase in storm activity, raising concerns about climate change impacts. This market predicts whether the 2026 season will be hyperactive, exceeding the threshold of 18 named storms, as officially reported.
- Will Apple Pay officially integrate support for a major cryptocurrency or stablecoin for direct transactions by the end of 2026?: Apple Pay is a dominant mobile payment platform, and its integration of cryptocurrency or stablecoin support for direct transactions would be a significant milestone for mainstream digital asset adoption. This move could drastically impact the crypto landscape, leading to considerable debate among financial analysts and crypto enthusiasts regarding its feasibility and implications for everyday commerce.
- Will Taylor Swift release a new original studio album before 2027?: Taylor Swift has been prolific with her 'Taylor's Version' re-recordings, but anticipation for entirely new material remains high among her global fanbase. This market focuses on whether she will drop an album composed of primarily new, previously unreleased songs. Traders will weigh her current project schedule against her history of surprise releases.
- Will NVIDIA release a successor to their Hopper H200 GPU with at least a 3x performance increase by January 20, 2027?: NVIDIA has consistently pushed the boundaries of AI hardware, with their Hopper architecture dominating the market. As demand for AI compute continues to skyrocket, the industry eagerly anticipates the next generation of GPUs. This market speculates on the pace of innovation and NVIDIA's ability to deliver a significant leap in performance within the next six months.
- Which AFC team will finish the 2026 NFL regular season with the best win-loss record?: The AFC is highly competitive, with several strong contenders vying for the top seed and crucial home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Traders will speculate on which team's roster, coaching, and schedule will lead them to the top of the conference standings by the end of the regular season.
- Which team will win the 2027 NBA Championship?: The 2026-2027 NBA season is set to be highly competitive, with several teams having strong title aspirations and significant offseason moves expected to reshape contender landscapes. Traders can bet on which of the top contenders will ultimately hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. This market provides an opportunity to predict the eventual champion before the playoffs begin.
- Which artist will receive a nomination for 'Album of the Year' at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards?: The 'Album of the Year' category is highly coveted at the Grammy Awards, recognizing outstanding artistic achievement. With numerous prominent artists expected to release albums within the eligibility period (October 1, 2025 – September 30, 2026), the field for nominations is wide open. This market allows traders to predict which albums will ultimately contend for the industry's top honor.
- Will 'The Batman - Part II' exceed $1 billion in worldwide box office gross?: The Batman - Part II, the highly anticipated sequel to Matt Reeves' critically acclaimed 2022 film, is set to continue Robert Pattinson's tenure as the Caped Crusader. The first film earned $772 million globally amidst a challenging pandemic release, demonstrating strong audience interest. This market will assess the sequel's potential to break the coveted billion-dollar mark, considering factors like critical reception, word-of-mouth, and global market conditions.
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 4,500 passing yards in the 2026 NFL regular season?: Patrick Mahomes, a premier NFL quarterback, consistently ranks among the league leaders in passing yardage. His performance in the upcoming 2026 regular season will be a key indicator of the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive prowess, with traders debating whether he can maintain or exceed his high statistical output.
- Will Australia officially propose legislation for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by December 31, 2026?: The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into effect in late 2023, aiming to prevent carbon leakage and encourage global decarbonization. Several other major economies, including the United States and Canada, have been exploring similar mechanisms. Australia, a significant exporter of resources, faces unique challenges and opportunities regarding such a policy, with ongoing debates about its economic and environmental impacts.
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds the strongest market-implied odds for 2026’s highest-grossing film due to its July 31 summer release window and the Spider-Man franchise’s proven global draw, with early tracking pointing to robust opening-weekend potential and a likely billion-dollar-plus finish. Traders price Avengers: Doomsday lower despite its MCU event status because of its later December slot, while Toy Story 5 benefits from Pixar’s consistent family appeal but trails in overall scale expectations. Recent industry projections highlight Spider-Man’s edge in international markets and presale momentum, though outcomes remain fluid as release dates, reviews, and competition from titles like The Odyssey shape final tallies.
- Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of gaining House control in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by consistent generic congressional ballot leads of 5 to 13 points in recent May surveys and the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain seats during a president's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority following the 2024 elections, requiring them to limit net losses to two seats or fewer for retention, while Democrats need a net gain of three. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri has provided modest structural gains for Republicans, yet these adjustments have not offset broader voter sentiment reflected in fundraising trends and early polling. Key upcoming factors include primary outcomes, additional map changes, and shifts in national conditions ahead of November.
- Will "Avengers: Doomsday" gross over $1.5 billion at the global box office by December 31, 2026?: Resolves to "Yes" if Box Office reports a worldwide gross of $1,500,000,000 or higher by the end of 2026.
- Will the Republican Party win a majority of seats (51 or more) in the United States Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections?: Resolves to "Yes" based on the official certified election results for the 120th United States Congress.
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?: Major AI labs continue aggressive talent and capability acquisitions amid record valuations, with OpenAI completing deals for firms like Stats Sig and Tomoro while Anthropic has integrated smaller applied AI and developer tools providers. SpaceX's February 2026 absorption of xAI stands as the most prominent recent consolidation, folding frontier model development into a combined entity exceeding $1 trillion. Broader tech M&A has accelerated around infrastructure, cybersecurity, and robotics, yet frontier players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity emphasize independent scaling, fresh funding rounds at hundreds of billions, and IPO preparations rather than full sales. Competitive pressures, regulatory scrutiny of hyperscaler roll-ups, and preference for public market exits shape the near-term landscape through mid-2027.
- Largest Company at the end of June?: NVIDIA’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability of remaining the world’s largest company by market capitalization at the end of June rests on its dominant position supplying 85–92% of AI accelerator chips to hyperscalers building large language models and data-center infrastructure. Surging demand for its GPUs has lifted the firm’s valuation above $5 trillion, well ahead of Alphabet and Apple. With just 30 days until resolution, the narrow window limits opportunities for reversal absent major earnings surprises or regulatory shifts. Traders see the current gap as durable given NVIDIA’s software ecosystem and extended order backlog, though a significant product delay or policy intervention could still alter the outcome.
- Will Space X successfully complete a crewed orbital orbital flight of the Starship spacecraft before January 1, 2027?: Resolves to "Yes" if a Starship vehicle carrying at least one human crew member completes at least one full orbit of Earth and safely returns before the deadline.
- Fed Decision in June?: Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting, driven by assessments that recent inflation data and labor market conditions have remained consistent with the Fed’s current policy stance. Central bank communications have reinforced a data-dependent approach without signaling imminent adjustments, aligning market-implied rate paths with steady Treasury yields and subdued volatility measures. This strong consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in probabilities based on verified economic releases rather than projections. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper-than-expected movements in pre-meeting CPI or nonfarm payrolls figures that alter rate expectations.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 2?: The 2026 NBA Finals pitting the New York Knicks against the San Antonio Spurs features contrasting styles and roster health considerations entering Game 1. The Knicks advanced after a dominant Eastern Conference run built on Jalen Brunson’s scoring, Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebounding, and physical defense, while the Spurs reached their first Finals since 2014 by defeating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games behind Victor Wembanyama’s versatility. Mitchell Robinson’s finger injury remains a day-to-day concern for New York’s frontcourt depth, though he is expected to be available. Home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and the Spurs’ length in the paint represent key matchup factors, with both teams navigating playoff fatigue and limited rest between series. Trader sentiment reflects the closely contested nature of a matchup between two squads with strong recent momentum and complementary strengths.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 4?: The Knicks enter Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals as slight favorites in trader consensus, buoyed by a 12-game playoff winning streak and physical frontcourt depth featuring Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby alongside Jalen Brunson’s scoring punch. The Spurs counter with home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and a rising core anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s elite two-way impact, supported by De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle in transition. Recent injury questions center on Mitchell Robinson’s questionable status with a fractured finger for New York, while San Antonio reports a clean sheet heading into the series rematch of the 1999 Finals. Both teams arrive after grueling conference finals, with the Knicks emphasizing rebounding and defense and the Spurs relying on length and pace to dictate tempo in what shapes as a closely contested opener.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 3?: The 2026 NBA Finals pitting the New York Knicks against the San Antonio Spurs features contrasting styles and roster health considerations entering Game 1. The Knicks advanced after a dominant Eastern Conference run built on Jalen Brunson’s scoring, Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebounding, and physical defense, while the Spurs reached their first Finals since 2014 by defeating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games behind Victor Wembanyama’s versatility. Mitchell Robinson’s finger injury remains a day-to-day concern for New York’s frontcourt depth, though he is expected to be available. Home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and the Spurs’ length in the paint represent key matchup factors, with both teams navigating playoff fatigue and limited rest between series. Trader sentiment reflects the closely contested nature of a matchup between two squads with strong recent momentum and complementary strengths.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?: Persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic to roughly 10-16% of the pre-February 2026 baseline of about 60 daily transits, with only 10 vessels moving in the most recent 24-hour period. Despite the April ceasefire, commercial operators face withdrawn war-risk insurance, Iranian checkpoints and fees, residual naval presence, and potential mine threats that have left over 1,500 vessels stranded. Analysts estimate full recovery could require up to six months for mine clearance and fleet repositioning, leaving insufficient time before the June 30 deadline. These factors underpin the 89.5% market-implied probability on “No,” reflecting trader consensus that near-term normalization remains unlikely absent a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
- Fed rate hike in 2026?: Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy pressures, combined with a resilient labor market featuring May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, has driven the near-even trader consensus on a 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75%, market-implied odds reflect balanced views on whether price pressures will moderate enough to preclude tightening or if stronger data will prompt action. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate swing factors, alongside subsequent inflation and employment prints, that could clarify the policy path amid ongoing data dependence.
- 2026 NBA Champion: Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship? Each team is a separate Yes/No prediction sub-market where you can trade shares and monitor prices.
- Will Nvidia's market cap exceed $4.5 Trillion in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Nvidia (NVDA) official market capitalization registered on Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg closes above $4.5T on any trading day in 2026.
- Will a video game adaptation be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars in 2026?: Resolves to YES if any theatrical film adapted from a video game intellectual property receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards.
- Will global solar energy capacity surpass 2,500 GW in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) official annual report lists global cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity above 2,500 Gigawatts (GW).
- Will SpaceX land an uncrewed Starship on Mars in 2026?: Resolves to YES if SpaceX successfully soft-lands or impact-lands any version of Starship on Martian soil before Dec 31, 2026.
- Will NIST certify a room-temperature superconductor in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) or equivalent national body certifies a material as superconducting above 0 degrees Celsius.
- Will Taylor Swift release a new studio album in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Taylor Swift releases a brand new (non-re-recorded) studio album before Dec 31, 2026.
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- Will the UK rejoin the EU Single Market in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the United Kingdom and the European Union sign or enact a formal partnership treaty granting UK full dynamic alignment with the EU Single Market.
- Will a non-European nation win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: Resolves to YES if the nation that lifts the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy belongs to CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, or OFC.
- Will the Republican Party control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Elections?: The 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections will determine control of both the House and Senate. With the Senate often narrowly divided, the battle for its control is expected to be highly contested, influenced by presidential approval ratings, key state races, and national political trends. Traders will assess the electoral landscape and individual state dynamics to predict the outcome.
- Will OpenAI release a model publicly by 2026-12-15 that achieves a 5-shot MMLU score of 90.0% or higher?: The race for advanced AI models continues to accelerate. OpenAI's next major release is highly anticipated, with competitors like Google and Anthropic also making rapid progress. Traders will speculate on whether OpenAI can maintain its lead and deliver a substantial leap in performance as measured by a key benchmark.
- Which artist will win the Album of the Year award at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards in 2027?: The Grammy Awards' Album of the Year is one of the most prestigious accolades in music, recognizing artistic merit, technical proficiency, and overall impact. This market allows traders to speculate on which artist will take home the coveted prize at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards ceremony, celebrating albums released between October 1, 2025, and September 30, 2026. The competition is always fierce, with many critically acclaimed albums vying for recognition.
- Which NBA player will win the 2026-2027 NBA Regular Season MVP award?: The NBA's Most Valuable Player award is one of the most prestigious individual honors in professional sports, recognizing the player deemed most essential to their team's success during the regular season. As the 2026-2027 season approaches, several top-tier talents are expected to contend for this coveted trophy, making for an exciting debate among fans and analysts. This market allows traders to predict which superstar will ultimately claim the MVP title.
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