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- Will Bitcoin (BTC) cross $120,000 in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Bitcoin hits $120,000.00 or higher at any point (UTC) on or before Dec 31, 2026.
- Will any G20 country fully launch a retail CBDC by October 2026?: Resolves to YES if a G20 member nation officially rolls out a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as nationwide legal tender.
- Will average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa hit 430 ppm in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the monthly average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory peaks or averages 430 parts per million (ppm) or higher in 2026.
- Will 'Dune: Part Three' get delayed past December 31, 2026?: Resolves to YES if Legendary Entertainment or Warner Bros announces theatrical release of Dune: Part Three is officially set after Dec 31, 2026, or if no release occurs.
- Will Ethereum (ETH) reach a new all-time high of $5,000 in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Ethereum trades at or above $5,000.00 at any point (UTC) on or before Dec 31, 2026 on major exchanges.
- 2026 Men's French Open Winner: Who will win the 2026 Men's French Open? Trade Yes/No contracts on each contender player in the sub-market pool.
- Will a Green Party candidate win leadership of any G7 nation in 2026?: Resolves to YES if a member of a registered national Green Party is elected or appointed as Chancellor, Prime Minister, or President of a G7 country in 2026.
- Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before July 31, 2026?: Resolves to YES if OpenAI officially launches a model explicitly branded 'GPT-5' for public access (free or paid) on or before July 31, 2026.
- Will 2026 break the record for hottest year on record?: Resolves to YES if NOAA or NASA reports that the global average surface temperature for 2026 is higher than any preceding year.
- Will LeBron James announce permanent NBA retirement in 2026?: Resolves to YES if LeBron James officially announces he will retire from playing professional basketball in the NBA.
- Will Lionel Messi announce retirement in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Lionel Messi publicly announces his official retirement from professional club and international football before December 31, 2026.
- "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes): Strong Friday grosses of $38.4 million, including over $10 million in previews, have propelled "Backrooms" toward an $85–90 million opening weekend that would shatter A24’s prior record. Traders assign an 83.7% implied probability to the >79 million outcome because the film’s internet-born IP from creator Kane Parsons drove exceptional under-35 turnout and presale momentum, while early tracking estimates of $40–50 million were rapidly revised upward. Positive critical reception, reflected in an 87–90% Rotten Tomatoes score, further reinforced audience interest and positioned the horror title ahead of recent franchise benchmarks. With the weekend’s final tally due shortly, any last-minute holdover strength could lock in the higher range.
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: The 2028 presidential field remains wide open more than two years before the general election, with trader consensus reflecting a broad array of potential Republican and Democratic nominees and no single candidate yet consolidating dominant support. JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Marco Rubio lead at 18.3%, 15.8%, and 14.0% respectively amid early positioning by governors, senators, and other prominent figures. This tight distribution stems from ongoing party dynamics after the prior cycle, limited early polling in battleground states, and the absence of formal primary contests or major endorsements. Midterm legislative outcomes, candidate announcements, and shifts in key voting blocs could consolidate backing, while historical patterns show early probabilities often realign substantially once the primary calendar advances.
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds the strongest market-implied odds for 2026’s highest-grossing film due to its July 31 summer release window and the Spider-Man franchise’s proven global draw, with early tracking pointing to robust opening-weekend potential and a likely billion-dollar-plus finish. Traders price Avengers: Doomsday lower despite its MCU event status because of its later December slot, while Toy Story 5 benefits from Pixar’s consistent family appeal but trails in overall scale expectations. Recent industry projections highlight Spider-Man’s edge in international markets and presale momentum, though outcomes remain fluid as release dates, reviews, and competition from titles like The Odyssey shape final tallies.
- Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of gaining House control in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by consistent generic congressional ballot leads of 5 to 13 points in recent May surveys and the historical tendency for the opposition party to gain seats during a president's term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority following the 2024 elections, requiring them to limit net losses to two seats or fewer for retention, while Democrats need a net gain of three. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri has provided modest structural gains for Republicans, yet these adjustments have not offset broader voter sentiment reflected in fundraising trends and early polling. Key upcoming factors include primary outcomes, additional map changes, and shifts in national conditions ahead of November.
- Will "Avengers: Doomsday" gross over $1.5 billion at the global box office by December 31, 2026?: Resolves to "Yes" if Box Office reports a worldwide gross of $1,500,000,000 or higher by the end of 2026.
- Will the Republican Party win a majority of seats (51 or more) in the United States Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections?: Resolves to "Yes" based on the official certified election results for the 120th United States Congress.
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?: Major AI labs continue aggressive talent and capability acquisitions amid record valuations, with OpenAI completing deals for firms like Stats Sig and Tomoro while Anthropic has integrated smaller applied AI and developer tools providers. SpaceX's February 2026 absorption of xAI stands as the most prominent recent consolidation, folding frontier model development into a combined entity exceeding $1 trillion. Broader tech M&A has accelerated around infrastructure, cybersecurity, and robotics, yet frontier players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity emphasize independent scaling, fresh funding rounds at hundreds of billions, and IPO preparations rather than full sales. Competitive pressures, regulatory scrutiny of hyperscaler roll-ups, and preference for public market exits shape the near-term landscape through mid-2027.
- Largest Company at the end of June?: NVIDIA’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability of remaining the world’s largest company by market capitalization at the end of June rests on its dominant position supplying 85–92% of AI accelerator chips to hyperscalers building large language models and data-center infrastructure. Surging demand for its GPUs has lifted the firm’s valuation above $5 trillion, well ahead of Alphabet and Apple. With just 30 days until resolution, the narrow window limits opportunities for reversal absent major earnings surprises or regulatory shifts. Traders see the current gap as durable given NVIDIA’s software ecosystem and extended order backlog, though a significant product delay or policy intervention could still alter the outcome.
- Will Space X successfully complete a crewed orbital orbital flight of the Starship spacecraft before January 1, 2027?: Resolves to "Yes" if a Starship vehicle carrying at least one human crew member completes at least one full orbit of Earth and safely returns before the deadline.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 2?: The 2026 NBA Finals pitting the New York Knicks against the San Antonio Spurs features contrasting styles and roster health considerations entering Game 1. The Knicks advanced after a dominant Eastern Conference run built on Jalen Brunson’s scoring, Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebounding, and physical defense, while the Spurs reached their first Finals since 2014 by defeating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games behind Victor Wembanyama’s versatility. Mitchell Robinson’s finger injury remains a day-to-day concern for New York’s frontcourt depth, though he is expected to be available. Home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and the Spurs’ length in the paint represent key matchup factors, with both teams navigating playoff fatigue and limited rest between series. Trader sentiment reflects the closely contested nature of a matchup between two squads with strong recent momentum and complementary strengths.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 4?: The Knicks enter Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals as slight favorites in trader consensus, buoyed by a 12-game playoff winning streak and physical frontcourt depth featuring Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby alongside Jalen Brunson’s scoring punch. The Spurs counter with home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and a rising core anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s elite two-way impact, supported by De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle in transition. Recent injury questions center on Mitchell Robinson’s questionable status with a fractured finger for New York, while San Antonio reports a clean sheet heading into the series rematch of the 1999 Finals. Both teams arrive after grueling conference finals, with the Knicks emphasizing rebounding and defense and the Spurs relying on length and pace to dictate tempo in what shapes as a closely contested opener.
- Who Wins the NBA Finals Game 3?: The 2026 NBA Finals pitting the New York Knicks against the San Antonio Spurs features contrasting styles and roster health considerations entering Game 1. The Knicks advanced after a dominant Eastern Conference run built on Jalen Brunson’s scoring, Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebounding, and physical defense, while the Spurs reached their first Finals since 2014 by defeating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games behind Victor Wembanyama’s versatility. Mitchell Robinson’s finger injury remains a day-to-day concern for New York’s frontcourt depth, though he is expected to be available. Home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center and the Spurs’ length in the paint represent key matchup factors, with both teams navigating playoff fatigue and limited rest between series. Trader sentiment reflects the closely contested nature of a matchup between two squads with strong recent momentum and complementary strengths.
- 2026 NBA Champion: Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship? Each team is a separate Yes/No prediction sub-market where you can trade shares and monitor prices.
- Will Nvidia's market cap exceed $4.5 Trillion in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Nvidia (NVDA) official market capitalization registered on Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg closes above $4.5T on any trading day in 2026.
- Will a video game adaptation be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars in 2026?: Resolves to YES if any theatrical film adapted from a video game intellectual property receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards.
- Will global solar energy capacity surpass 2,500 GW in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) official annual report lists global cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity above 2,500 Gigawatts (GW).
- Will SpaceX land an uncrewed Starship on Mars in 2026?: Resolves to YES if SpaceX successfully soft-lands or impact-lands any version of Starship on Martian soil before Dec 31, 2026.
- Will NIST certify a room-temperature superconductor in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) or equivalent national body certifies a material as superconducting above 0 degrees Celsius.
- Will Taylor Swift release a new studio album in 2026?: Resolves to YES if Taylor Swift releases a brand new (non-re-recorded) studio album before Dec 31, 2026.
- Test Security Market: Test
- Will the UK rejoin the EU Single Market in 2026?: Resolves to YES if the United Kingdom and the European Union sign or enact a formal partnership treaty granting UK full dynamic alignment with the EU Single Market.
- Will a non-European nation win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: Resolves to YES if the nation that lifts the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy belongs to CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, or OFC.
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